Prop Firm Simulator — What Are Your Real Chances of Passing?
Enter your win rate, average win/loss, and trade frequency. We'll run 500 simulated evaluations and show your odds.
Failure Reason Breakdown
Median Equity Curve — with 10th / 90th Percentile Bands
How to Read Your Results
Pass Rate — the share of the 500 runs that hit the profit target without breaching a limit. That's your real-world odds, not a guarantee.
Avg Days to Pass — how long a typical successful run takes, so you can budget for the attempt.
Failure Breakdown — what's actually killing your evaluations. Mostly daily-limit breaches? Your exposure per day is too high. Mostly drawdown breaches? You're losing too much before building cushion. Mostly timeouts? Your edge is too thin to hit the target in 90 days.
Equity Curve — the median path plus the 10th–90th percentile range. A wide band means high variance; a narrow band means more consistent outcomes.
Pass Rate Under 50%?
Usually a sizing or signal-frequency problem. Get a pre-built script with proper risk management already handled.
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Frequently asked questions
How does the Monte Carlo simulation work?
It runs 500 independent trading sessions using your win rate and average win/loss, tracking daily P&L against the firm's limits until you hit the target (pass) or break a rule (fail).
How many simulations should I run?
500 is fixed and plenty — the margin of error on the pass rate is about ±2%.
What does the equity curve show?
The median path, plus the best and worst 10% of outcomes, so you can see the realistic spread — not just one lucky or unlucky run.
My pass rate is under 30% — is my strategy broken?
Not necessarily. It often means your variance is too high for the firm's limits. Try smaller position sizing (lower avg win/loss) and re-run — pass rate usually improves a lot.
How is this different from the Strategy Readiness Checker?
The Strategy Readiness Checker gives a fast pass/fail from the math. This simulator shows the full range of outcomes, including bad-luck sequences. Use the checker for a quick read, the simulator for the deeper picture.