Prop Firm Simulator — What Are Your Real Chances of Passing?
Run 500 simulated prop firm evaluations with your strategy stats and see your projected pass rate, average days to pass, failure reason breakdown, and a median equity curve with percentile bands.
Failure Reason Breakdown
Median Equity Curve — with 10th / 90th Percentile Bands
How to Interpret Your Simulation Results
The Pass Rate is the percentage of the 500 simulated evaluations that successfully reached the profit target without breaching any firm limits. This is the closest approximation to your "real" pass probability given your strategy's statistical parameters. A 60% pass rate means that if you run 10 evaluations with this strategy, you should expect roughly 6 passes — though variance means the actual outcome could be 3 or 8 in any 10-evaluation batch.
The Average Days to Pass tells you how long the successful evaluations typically took. This is useful for planning — if your average passing evaluation takes 18 days, you know roughly how long to budget for each evaluation attempt. If it's longer than 30 days, consider whether your firm has a time limit that could trigger the timeout failure category.
The Failure Reason Breakdown shows what is killing the failing evaluations. If most failures are from daily limit breaches, that means your max daily loss exposure is too high relative to the firm's limit — add a tighter kill switch. If most failures are from trailing drawdown breaches, your strategy is having too many consecutive losing days early in the evaluation before building cushion. If timeouts dominate, your expected daily P&L is too low to reach the target within 90 trading days.
The Equity Curve shows the median path (50th percentile of all 500 simulations), the 10th percentile (the bottom 10% of outcomes), and the 90th percentile (the top 10% of outcomes). The width of the band between 10th and 90th percentile shows how much variance your strategy produces — a wide band means high variability, a narrow band means more consistent outcomes.
Improve Your Simulated Pass Rate — From $50
If your simulation shows a pass rate below 50%, the issue is usually stop sizing, signal frequency, or missing risk management features. Get a pre-built script with the correct architecture already built in.
View Script Plans Get My Script AuditedFrequently asked questions
How does the Monte Carlo simulation work?
The simulator runs 500 independent evaluation scenarios. Each scenario simulates a trading session by drawing random win/loss outcomes based on your win rate, multiplied by your average win or loss. It accumulates daily P&L, checks for daily loss limit breaches and max drawdown breaches, and continues until the profit target is hit (pass) or a rule is violated (fail). The pass rate is the percentage of the 500 simulations that passed.
How many simulations should I run?
500 simulations (the fixed default) is statistically sufficient for most strategy assessments. At 500 runs, the standard error on the pass rate is approximately ±2.2%. Running more would give marginally more precision but is not necessary for practical decision-making.
What does the equity curve show?
The equity curve shows three lines: the median equity path across all 500 simulations (the middle line), the 90th percentile path (best 10% of outcomes), and the 10th percentile path (worst 10% of outcomes). The shaded region between them represents the realistic range of equity outcomes given your strategy parameters.
My pass rate is under 30% — is my strategy broken?
Not necessarily. A low pass rate with positive expected value often means the strategy's variance (the spread between wins and losses) is high relative to the evaluation's risk limits. The fix is usually reducing position size to narrow the daily loss range, which dramatically improves pass rate even with the same win rate and expected value. Run the simulation again with a smaller average win and loss (simulating smaller sizing) to see the effect.
How is this different from the Strategy Readiness Checker?
The Strategy Readiness Checker gives a fast, deterministic verdict based on expected value math. The simulator runs 500 random scenarios and shows the actual probability distribution of outcomes — including how often bad luck sequences cause a breach even when the strategy has positive expected value. Use the checker for a quick pass/fail and the simulator for a deeper probability assessment.